Tag: Economics & Research

2014 US Commercial Printing Industry Profits Fall by -27% Compared to 2013

While US commercial printing shipments ended their skid at the end of 2014, industry profits fell compared to 2013. Even for the third and fourth quarter, where revenue comparisons were slightly higher than 2013 ($39.1 billion versus $38.8), profits we…

Ad Agency Revenues Have Strong 2014, Up +4.3%; Books and Specialty Publishing Revenues Continue Rebound From 2013 Bottom

For 2014, advertising agency revenues (+4.3%) and books and specialty publisher revenues +(3.2%) were bright spots amid the declines in periodical publisher revenues (-3.8%) and those of newspaper publishers (-6.3%). The chart below (click to enlarge) …

Unemployment Report Better, But Progress Slower than it Implies

The continuing story of this economic recovery is how many of the high-level data in the headlines is not what it really seems to be when you look at the underlying data. The explanation of the difference is too complex for the evening news, and even o…

US Commercial Printing Industry has Strong January

US commercial printing shipments started with a good January, up $173 million (+2.8%) on a current dollar basis and up $178 million (+2.9%) on an inflation adjusted basis. Since inflation is now negative (overall prices going down according to the Cons…

Recovery Indicators NASDAQ Up Strongly, Others Pull Back Slightly; Q4-2014 Real GDP Reduced to +2.2%

The NASDAQ had a very strong month, increasing more than 250 points, and breaking through the 5000 level for a brief time. There’s no Internet bubble this time, and companies are generally in very good financial condition for the most part, with real sales and real profits; there may be exuberance this time, but not…

US Commercial Printing Forecast to 2020; What is the Right Role for Forecasting Models?

Now that 2014’s US commercial printing shipments data have been released, we ran our forecasting models to get a peek at where the trendlines to 2020 are headed. We use three basic statistical models, plus a regression model that uses real GDP as the independent variable. The original data are from the US Department of…

Are the Stock Indexes Really at All-Time Highs? Does It Matter?

Are stock indexes at all time highs? Finally, the S&P 500 has broken through its inflation-adjusted all-time high of March 2000, closing on Friday, February 20 at 2110.3. The Dow broke through a while ago, and is now 11% above its January 2000 high. The Russell 2000 has been above its all-time high, and since…

Industry Capital Investment Rate Increasing Since Recession

The rate of capital investment as a percentage of sales has increased steadily since the economic recovery began in 2009. In 2010, the industry invested at the rate of 2.9% as a percentage of sales. For each of the years since, with 2013 being the most…

2014 Printing Employment Revised to Slower Decrease; US Employment Improves Again

Last week’s unemployment report was generally viewed as positive, even though the unemployment rate rose from 5.6% to 5.7%. Extended to an additional decimal point, the actual difference was a change from 5.56% to 5.71%. There was good reason to view it as one of the better reports of late. But overall, it was more…